Mathematical modeling of COVID-19

The best available modeling of COVID-19 has many shortcomings. This is a game that will be fought with data due to the epidemiological parameters of the virus.

I believe we need better mathematical models, deeper personal data, and crucially a better understanding of the sensitivity of the modeling. This is to inform policy around confinement measures, when and where to strengthen it and relax it.

The mathematical modeling is starting to be discussed here. The author of the blog post has done the very very valuable work of digging through the Supplementary Information in all those papers.

Hopefully we can:

  • get a better understanding of the sensitivity of those models, which means we will know better what data to crowdsource
  • try to develop some better mathematical modeling, based on informed data. There are some leads here.

As a consequence we should know better what apps or services to implement in the global hackathon currently in the making, particularly for Switzerland.


I noticed that some people were coming to my blog from here, so since this seems to be a mostly English-speaking forum, I wanted to let people know that I had now translated my post in English.



Welcome to the forum, have you seen this hackathon by Yaneer Bar-Yam?

There is a lot of modeling to be done better.


Thanks! I didn’t know about this, and I will contribute if I can, but at the moment I’m afraid it’s impossible because I just have too many things on my plate already.

Keep up the good work.

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Likewise. This is important.